Rondo
Numbers and theories up and down, left and right have been blurted, spit, spewed, proclaimed, and even vociferated. One that cannot be disputed, however, is the simple fact that the Celtics are one win away from a second NBA Championship in three years. Now, as Boston fans, we must remember not to jump the gun. We can all recall the 2003 Red Sox being a mere 5 outs away from the World Series and…well we all remember what happened, no need to dredge up old memories. There are a few simple facts of the past two games (both wins for the Green) that could help you predict the winner as the game is being played.
1. By now we’ve all heard about the rebounding battle between both Los Angeles and Boston. Nonetheless, the fact remains that the winner of the rebounding battle for each game has gone on to win the game. Although Game 5 was a 1 rebound differential (35-34) the Celtics won that battle, along with the game. Look for the rebounding game to be just as crucial in this game as it has in the past 5.
2. Fast break points. A stat that seems to be flying under the radar is not necessarily the Celtic’s fast break points, but the Lakers’ lack of fast break points. Boston has done a great job the past two games at not allowing L.A. to score off the fast break. Scoring those types of buckets can be a real momentum changer, and Boston’s transition defense has been phenomenal, holding the Lakers to 2 and 3 fast break points in Games 4 and 5 respectively. To keep that consistency the C’s have also scored 15 and 14 fast break points of their own in the past two games, again being able to harness that momentum.
3. The battle down low doesn’t stop with the boards. A key to the Celtic’s wins throughout the playoffs has been out battling teams in the paint, on both ends of the floor. In Game 4 the Celts outscored L.A. in the paint by 20 points, 54 to 34. Game 5 resulted similarly with Boston outscoring the Lakers 46 to 32 in the paint.
4. Double the amount of double-digit scorers. I know, that sounds odd to say, but it is very simple. In Game 4 the Celtics had 6 players score in double digits, Garnett, Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo, Robinson, and Davis. In comparison L.A. had 3, Kobe, Gasol, and Odom. For Game 5 Boston scored from different angles again, boasting 4 players topping 10-plus points, Garnett, Pierce, Ray Allen, and Rondo; whereas the Lakers simply had 2, Kobe and Gasol.
5. For my final (predominantly) stat driven key to Celtic success: Keep the Lakers from scoring 90 or more points, while scoring over 90 yourselves. Games 4 and 5 were 7 and 6 point wins, respectively, and in both the Celtics scored over 90 points as they held L.A. to 89 or less.
As the game progresses keep track of these statistics, chances are that the team that wins these battles will win the game.
Of course there are other factors that go into Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Pierce establishing himself early on again by going to the hole, and not acting a bit like a baby when he does not get the ball as much as he’d like, and deserved, in the 2nd quarter of Game 5, is a key factor. In fact, if the Big 3 can all click at the same time, for the duration of the game, Boston will gain the upper hand. I worry about the Celtic’s 3-pt. percentage, in the past two games it has been an anemic 25%. One positive from that statistic, however, is Boston realized it, and only took 12 total 3’s in each of the past two games. Boston also needs to get to the line. They attempted 13 free throws in Game 5, and a majority were in the dwindling minutes of the game. The free throws don’t worry me as much because it wasn’t an overlapping stat, in Game 4 they took 23 and shot 83% from the charity stripe.
Factors for Los Angeles that could affect the Celtics, outside of the earlier stats, are just as important. Lamar Odom recently came out and said he’s been suffering from flu-like symptoms for the past few games, whether you believe it or not, the question remains if Odom will ever show up for a game in the Finals. Pau Gasol is needed if L.A. intends on winning. The Finals will not and cannot be won with just one star, Gasol needs to be that 2nd star. Andrew Bynum’s health has been a huge factor. When he is playing strong and well he can be a game changer, however, when he is dragging one leg up and down the floor he can adversely affect the Lakers play. Finally, will Kobe Bryant’s outburst in the locker room following Game 5 help or hurt this Los Angeles team as they try and defend their home court.
Basketball, like any sport, can be incredibly complex. Home court advantage plays its part, just as much as a team dynamic. Clearly the home court will not sway back in favor of the Celtics, but will Paul Pierce’s mini outburst from Game 5, pouting with his hands on his hips wanting the ball, come back to bite the Celtics more than Kobe’s expletive driven outburst following his most recent loss? Or can both teams move on as one is looking for banner 18, with two chances at it, while the other has its back to the ropes, ready to play a little rope-a-dope.
Sean Sendall – follow me on Twitter
Tags: Boston Celtics, Sean Sendall
